Week in Brief
Spreads held steady across FX and gold all week, even as US PCE data released Friday softened near-term Fed rate expectations and gold held above $4,000. The week's standout movement came from Swissquote's NAS100, which swung from 2.45 pts on Wednesday to 3.2 pts on Thursday as Micron surged 15% on AI demand. FOREX.com dropped its GBP/USD spread to 0.1 pips on Thursday, the tightest GBP/USD reading of the week from any broker.
Spread Movements by Instrument
EUR/USD
Stable- Week range
- 0.1 to 1.4 pips across brokers
- Cheapest
- Pepperstone at 0.1 pips (all five days)
- Notable
- Cross-broker average held between 0.73 and 0.84 pips all week. PCE release Friday caused no measurable change.
GBP/USD
Mild tightening, Monday to Friday- Week range
- 0.1 to 2.0 pips across brokers
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.1 pips; FOREX.com dropped to 0.1 pips Thursday
- Notable
- FOREX.com cut its GBP/USD from 0.5 pips Monday to 0.1 pips Thursday. GBP/USD traded near 1.3200. Oanda held at 2.0 pips all week, most expensive on this pair.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Stable- Week range
- 0.12 to 0.30 USD across core brokers
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.12 USD (all five days)
- Notable
- Gold held above $4,000 throughout. Core broker spreads did not widen.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Minor widening at BlackBull and Swissquote- Week range
- 2.0 to 11.4 pts across brokers
- Cheapest
- IG World at 2.8 pts (four of five days), ThinkMarkets at 2.0 pts on Thursday
- Notable
- BlackBull ticked from 10.4 to 11.4 pts by Thursday, a 9.6% increase, as WTI traded below $70 on Hormuz supply uncertainty. IG World held at 2.8 pts all week.
US500
Stable- Week range
- 0.4 to 1.1 pts across brokers
- Cheapest
- IG World at 0.4 pts; ThinkMarkets tied Thursday
- Notable
- No spread movement across any broker despite PCE release and equity activity.
GER40
Stable- Week range
- 1.4 to 4.33 pts (two brokers reporting)
- Cheapest
- IG World at 1.4 pts
- Notable
- Coverage limited to two brokers. EasyMarkets World at 4.33 pts is three times wider than IG.
NAS100
Swissquote widened Thursday; tightened midweek- Week range
- 1.0 to 3.2 pts across two brokers
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 1.0 pts (unchanged all week)
- Notable
- Swissquote ran 2.95, 2.7, 2.45, then 3.2 pts Monday to Thursday. The Thursday spike coincided with Micron's 15% single-day gain on AI memory demand.
USD/JPY
Stable- Week range
- 0.1 to 1.4 pips across brokers
- Cheapest
- BlackBull Markets at 0.1 pips (all five days)
- Notable
- USD/JPY traded near 162.00, flagged by ING as the new BOJ intervention threshold. No elevated risk premium visible in spread data.
BTC/USD
AvaTrade tightened slightly Thursday to Friday- Week range
- 15 to 25 USD across reporting brokers
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 15 USD (Thursday)
- Notable
- AvaTrade moved from 24.67 USD Thursday to 23.96 USD Friday. Coverage remains thin except Thursday when three brokers reported.
Broker Spotlight
BlackBull Markets held the tightest spreads on XAU/USD (0.12 USD), GBP/USD (0.1 pips), USD/JPY (0.1 pips), and NAS100 (1.0 pts) all week. FOREX.com was this week's standout mover, cutting GBP/USD from 0.5 pips Monday to 0.1 pips Thursday.
Market Context
- US PCE data (26 June) came in cooler than expected, softening near-term Fed rate hike bets. EUR/USD moved above 1.1400. Gold held above $4,000. No spread reaction at any broker.
- USD/JPY at 162.00. ING flagged 162 as the new potential BOJ intervention threshold. Spread data showed no risk premium: USD/JPY spreads held 0.1 to 1.4 pips all week.
- WTI below $70 on Middle East supply risks and Hormuz uncertainty. BlackBull WTI spread widened 9.6% across the week, from 10.4 to 11.4 pts.
- Micron +15% on AI memory demand (25 June). Swissquote NAS100 widened to 3.2 pts Thursday from 2.45 pts Wednesday, the only measurable index spread reaction of the week.
To Watch Next Week
- 30 June, Tuesday: Eurozone flash CPI. Instruments to watch: EUR/USD, GER40
- 2 July, Thursday: ISM Manufacturing PMI. Instruments to watch: US500, NAS100, USD/JPY
- 3 July, Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls (pre-Independence Day). Instruments to watch: EUR/USD, US500, XAU/USD; expect thinner liquidity and potential spread widening ahead of the US holiday