Week of 28 September to 2 October 2026·Published
Week in Brief
US payrolls missed hard at 29K versus 90K expected on Friday, and every key instrument with enough broker coverage widened on the week. EUR/USD average spreads ran from 0.879 to 0.946 pips, GBP/USD from 1.049 to 1.127 pips, and GER40 jumped from 2.27 to 2.845 points around the Thursday to Friday window. IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) stayed the cheapest name across 22 of 45 key instrument-days.
Called It / Missed It
Last week's To Watch, scored against this week's spreads.
- Called it. Fed commentary on yields, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY spread wideningAll three widened this week: EUR/USD 0.879 to 0.946 pips, GBP/USD 1.049 to 1.127 pips, USD/JPY 0.959 to 1.026 pips, with the biggest jumps landing on 2026-09-29.
- Missed it. XAU/USD reversal from the 0.249 USD level on Dollar and yields easingXAU/USD did not reverse lower. It widened from 0.194 on Monday to 0.258 on Tuesday and held near 0.256 through Friday, staying above the 0.249 level referenced rather than reversing below it.
Spread Movements by Instrument
EUR/USD
widened- Week range
- 0.879 to 0.946 pips average across brokers
- Cheapest
- IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) at 0.01 pips every day
- Notable
- Average widened from 0.879 on Monday to a weekly high of 0.946 on Tuesday, then eased back to 0.911 by Friday after the NFP miss.
GBP/USD
widened- Week range
- 1.049 to 1.127 pips average across brokers
- Cheapest
- IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) at 0.04 pips every day
- Notable
- Spreads jumped from 1.049 Monday to 1.127 Tuesday, then settled near 1.10 for the rest of the week.
USD/JPY
widened- Week range
- 0.959 to 1.026 pips average across brokers
- Cheapest
- IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) at 0.03 pips every day
- Notable
- Average rose from 0.959 Monday to 1.026 Tuesday and held at 1.023 through Wednesday to Friday.
XAU/USD
widened- Week range
- 0.194 to 0.258 USD average across brokers
- Cheapest
- IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) at 0.09 USD every day
- Notable
- Average widened from 0.194 Monday to 0.258 Tuesday and stayed around 0.256 the rest of the week, with Pepperstone widening 0.15 to 0.20, a 33% move.
GER40
widened- Week range
- 2.27 to 2.845 points average across brokers
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 0.7 points most days
- Notable
- Average spread rose from 2.27 Monday to a weekly high of 2.845 Tuesday, with BlackBull Markets widening from 5.5 to 7.5 points, a 36% move.
NAS100
widened- Week range
- 1.202 to 1.427 points average across brokers
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 0.8 points most days
- Notable
- Coverage ran only 4 to 5 brokers all week, so this is a thin instrument and the average swing between 1.202 and 1.427 is partly a coverage artifact.
WTI/USD
widened- Week range
- 3.829 to 4.175 points average across brokers
- Cheapest
- ThinkMarkets at 2 points most days
- Notable
- Average climbed from 3.829 Monday to 4.175 by Thursday and held there, with Pepperstone widening from 2 to 5 points, a 150% move.
BTC/USD
widened- Week range
- 20.602 to 26.452 price-points average across brokers
- Cheapest
- Pepperstone at 10, then IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) at 12.01 from Thursday
- Notable
- Coverage ran only 5 to 7 brokers across the week, so part of the swing from 20.602 to 26.452 reflects changing broker counts, not just spread moves. Pepperstone itself widened from 10 to 15, a 50% move.
US500
stable- Week range
- 0.568 to 0.588 points average across brokers
- Cheapest
- IG Group at 0.4 points most days, Swissquote at 0.35 on Tuesday
- Notable
- Average held in a narrow 0.568 to 0.588 band all week, the steadiest of the key instruments.
Broker Spotlight
IC Markets (Raw Spread account, commission extra) was the tightest broker this week, posting the cheapest EUR/USD at 0.01 pips, GBP/USD at 0.04 pips, USD/JPY at 0.03 pips and XAU/USD at 0.09 USD every day, and topping the cheapest-broker tally with 22 of 45 key instrument-days. XM was the widest outlier on the major FX pairs, quoting 2 pips on EUR/USD, 2.4 pips on GBP/USD and 2.5 pips on USD/JPY all week, while easyMarkets stayed the dearest on WTI/USD at 7 points and US500 at 1.2 points throughout.
Market Context
- US Nonfarm Payrolls rose 29K in September versus 90K expected, released Friday 2 October, and major FX pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD had already widened earlier in the week ahead of the print
To Watch Next Week
- FOMC minutes release, watch EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for renewed spread widening since TD Securities expects limited fresh clues
- Fed pricing fading after peaking post-NFP, watch EUR/USD and GBP/USD spreads for a possible narrowing if Dollar moves settle
- Eurozone inflation data follow-through against GBP, watch EUR/USD and GBP/USD spreads given the two-month low cited for EUR/GBP
- AUD/USD spread coverage, still missing from this pack, worth adding next week given ongoing RBA commentary
- Gold's continued widening versus the 0.249 USD reference level, watch XAU/USD spreads for any reversal now two weeks running without one